Disrupt is the “what is hot in Silicon Valley” conference. It was meant to be the biggest, best ever but to me it seemed pretty quiet for the exhibition of the beating heart of the new economy. Of the companies showing, nothing was especially awesome. There was little-to-no crypto in evidence; certainly it was not there as the next big thing. There was pretty much zero crypto buzz happening and there seemed to be more sighing than grinning when it came up in conversation.
Bitcoin (BTC) has crashed but it doesn’t seem like ‘the end’ to me, just a nasty pullback and a delay to the great day bitcoin runs past $20,000. It’s very ho-hum when you look at the bitcoin slumps of the past.
The missing piece for crypto remains the lack of a mainstream killer application. For the PC it was word processing and spreadsheets, for the Mac desktop publishing, for VHS and the web it was probably porn.
Crypto doesn’t really have that killer app yet. BTC the application is the digital money and Ethereum has its “security issuance” application. These in their present configuration are niche and dapps (decentralized applications) have a similar problem. Nothing looking like a mainstream market hit yet, but that is bound to come. This barren application landscape will be populated at some point, a breakthrough product is only one bedroom-coding genius away and there is a legion beavering away.
Meanwhile this is the BTC chart and you can see from my added lines that the near future looks pretty bearish:
This is an obvious chart to draw. It could easily make you feel like selling. The trouble is not getting out, it’s getting back in that is tricky. It only takes a few days of hesitation to miss the boat when bitcoin moves up and if you get into the “market timing” game it’s hard not to be whipsawed to death or end up nursing a small profit as you watch the main chance run away from you.
Market timing is incredibly difficult, especially in a hugely volatile asset like bitcoin.
Personally, I’m not selling because I prefer to buy, hold and buy more at lower prices if they come my way. If bitcoin breaks $7,500 there will be another big drop, but we will only ever be one event away from BTC above $10,000 again, even if it falls and falls.
Yes it’s a great market to trade, if you want to play that game and you are great at it. Trade away. But if you want to invest or dump bitcoin the decision remains simple.
BTC $100,000-plus or BTC $0.
Pick your side and invest accordingly as to me there is no mid-ground. The bitcoin model appears to be unbreakable and until the day I believe it isn’t, I am in the $100,000-plus camp.