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Bitcoin Traders Should Watch $5,600 And $8,900
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Bitcoin Traders Should Watch $5,600 And $8,900

Bitcoin has been all over recently. After dropping briefly below the $6000-mark back in late June, it raced towards the $9000-mark a month later, before head back towards the $6000-mark again in recent weeks.

Where is Bitcoin price heading next? It’s hard to say, given the volatility of the digital currency markets.

Table 1

Coin Price
Bitcoin (BTC) $6,450.87
Ethereum (ETH) $213.22
XRP 0.36

Still, traders should watch these two prices closely: $5,613.89 and $8,931.47.

The first price is the average of Hayes’ and Wheatley’s models. “Something I found interesting is that the average of Hayes’ and Wheatley’s models is beginning to converge closer to Bitcoin’s actual price,” says Greg Giordano, my co-author of a research paper on Bitcoin prices. “The average of Hayes’ and Wheatley’s models is currently $5,613.89 compared to Bitcoin’s price at a little over $6,300.”

The second price is an estimate produced by the Market Model, which combines the Hayes’ and Wheatley’s models.

Simply put, the two prices reflect both demand and supply factors rather than just demand or just supply factors, as is the case with prices estimated separately by either the Hayes’ or the Wheatley’s models. And that makes them less extreme—see table 2.

Table 2

Three Forecasts For Bitcoin’s Price For The Next Seven Days

Forecasting Model Price
Hayes $10,157.16
Wheatley $1,070.77
Market Model $8,931.47

[Ed. note: Investing in cryptocoins or tokens is highly speculative and the market is largely unregulated. Anyone considering it should be prepared to lose their entire investment. Disclosure: I don’t own any bitcoin, Greg Giordano owns bitcoin.]

Meanwhile, this price range is very close to expert assessments. David Drake Founder and Chairman LDJ Capital, for instance, expects Bitcoin prices to trade slightly above $8,931.47, though that will take a longer investment horizon than seven days. “When all the whales and big buyers of Bitcoin have acquired the Bitcoin at the price that they want, the price that they depressed it to be, then we are going to see a rush to the value because the supply of Bitcoin is going to dry up,” says Drake. “That will happen in the next few months and that will bring a rally on the price of Bitcoin, which will be over $10,000.00 for the price of Bitcoin.”

Shidan Gouran, President and CEO Global Blockchain Technologies Corp, is less optimistic, placing Bitcoin price closer to the $5800, though he sees it very unlikely for Bitcoin price to drop below $6000. “It has become clear that Bitcoin’s “iron” price is no lower than $6,000 USD, mostly because that’s the approximate cost of mining a single Bitcoin,” says Gouran.

Clement Thibault, Senior Analyst at Investing.com, is surprised that Bitcoin has been holding above $6000 for that long. “Quite honestly, I’ve never witnessed an asset holding a hard floor for months on end of trading like Bitcoin has done,” says Thibault. “Bitcoin hasn’t dipped under $6K for a significant amount of time in a way that really strikes me as borderline unnatural. We’ve seen it happen once again, not even 24 hours ago. It’s hard not to think that it will blow up at some point.”

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