Quite simply, interest in bitcoin is melting, along with its price. That makes perfect sense to me, as I view bitcoin’s price as a function of the market’s perception of the anticipated new adoption rate. That new adoption rate is low. Very low.
A year ago, people were curious. Six months ago, people were almost desperate for information. Now, not so much. Heck, even the haters and those who have said bitcoin is worthless don’t seem to be able to muster up a good fire and brimstone report on bitcoin lately.
What has happened? To a large extent, bitcoin has lost its way.
A medium of exchange? Very few believe it to be an efficient means of buying or selling anything.
Anonymous way to keep wealth from the government? Maybe true, particularly in some countries with oppressive regimes, but more and more it is becoming integrated into the mainstream, with governments more than happy to tax it starting to regulate it.
A store of value? For now, I will give this one to bitcoin, but as the price continues to erode, that will be called into question. It was worth “only” $2,500 this time last year, so even at $6,000 it has had a good one year return, and it was barely $600 at this time in 2016, creating a truly great two-year return. Early adopters have benefited greatly and that performance should not be dismissed.
Decentralization? I was never sure why this was a benefit, but as exchanges flourish and regulators step-in, this seems to be less and less true, though I never understand why decentralization was a good thing in something that was supposed to act like money.
There was a window where access to Initial Coin Offerings created a new need to own Bitcoin, but that has slowed as ICO’s have come under intense scrutiny (from what I gather, many of the ICO’s deserve that intense scrutiny).
Bitcoin has lost its buzz. Can Bitcoin regain its Mojo?
It can, but I think Bitcoin in particular needs to assert its value proposition. What it is worth over time, is a function of what value it provides its users and owners, and I for one, am struggling to see the benefits of re-entering the market.
For several years, many pundits, including myself, have discussed the possibility that a cryptocurrency could fulfill all of the promise of digital money, but that it wouldn’t be one of the first generation “coins.” Maybe it is time for one of the new cryptocurrencies to step up and take the lead. To show a clear path to the promise digital money holds (though to be honest, I can’t stop wondering how much marketing genius there was in calling these “coins” and whether the promise was always an illusion).
Until I see something change in terms of interest, I can’t get comfortable recommending anyone buy Bitcoin here.